August 29, 2010 4:45 AM
I was looking at GOOG’s chart to see if GOOG has any support at current levels. I trade Daily Stock Charts, but I do research Weekly and Monthly charts to see if there is any glaring visible pattern for me to analyze.
Interestingly GOOG seems to be forming a Symmetric Triangle Pattern. So, I want to see GOOG’s retracement levels. GOOG started trading in Aug. 2004 at a low of $95 and reached a high of $747 by Nov. 2007. From Nov. 2007, GOOG retraced (BC) by 76.4% to $247 in Nov. 2008. From a low of $247 in Nov. 2008, GOOG rallied to 628 by Dec. 2009, which is also 76.4% rally into BC range. If Symmetry works, GOOG should retrace the same 76.4% of CD retracement and trade at $337.57.
August 10, 2010 1:00 AM
I am finding EW trades more now… This may force me to go back and study Elliott Waves all over again 
I do like when they work intraday, so I can quickly evaluate if my thesis is correct.
Today ES started to sell-off at the open and started to form 0-1-2 setup (ABC) around the mid Fib. Band. This is usually not my typical trade since the pattern formation is around the mid Fib. Bands not near the extreme bands. Anyway, around 10.45am, price formed a small ABC (0-1-2) and traded above mid Fib. Band. This has given me the first clue that it may be the seed-wave (0-1-2) of EW pattern. I quickly started to plot potential Wave 3 range. I suspected the W3 may be between 1123 (127% of 0-1) and 1124.5 (162% of 0-1) setup. About 11.45pm, Price traded at 1124.5 (162%) and started to retrace to the mid Fib. Band (also at 100% of 0-1). Now I was confident that if price starts to rise, it will at least see between 1125 (0.62 of 2-3) and 1127 (0.76 of 2-3) for Wave 5. Just about 3pm, price traded at 1127 and finished Wave 5.
In my view, EWs are hard to detect and very rarely they are easy to spot with naked eyes. But when they do work as today, they really show the power of Elliott Waves and Fibonacci Ratios.
July 29, 2010 8:55 PM
It is never easy to detect an Elliott Wave Pattern. Every EW theorist has his own rules. Usually it is NOT my style of trading EW as I am not actively looking for it. Many many years ago, I got interested in developing EW program for TradeStation and I learnt for few months of its build, various rules and its nuances. Coding was a new challenge as it constantly adjusts and re-adjusts with various arcane rules. This process took about 6 months for me to understand and code various rules, but finally realized I may never be able to completely write the EW algorithm to my satisfaction. Hence, I abandoned the EW project but I learnt quite a few patterns in the process. Even though I do not look for EW actively, time to time, I do find the EW waves and I trade them from ABC perspective. Today was such a day in ES 1220 Tick chart… Here is how it worked out as I initially traded only ABC pattern.
Today ES Sold off from the high of 1112.5 to 1088 by noon. Most serious drops have some retracements as Counter Trend moves. The first bounce from low was at 1088 to 1094 area (6 pts) signaling potential AB leg in the ABC pattern. The retracement (BC) leg was about 4 points to 1090 area with 76% AB length. See EW01 figure. Note Pivot (A) was also marked as ‘Market Structure Low’. Having (A) or (B) or (C) as Market Structures adds additional confirmation for the ABC Pattern. The entry trigger into the ABC was at 1092.75 with targets between 1095.25 and 1096.75. A Stop loss is set at 1090 level (C). Once the AB reached its targets (See Fig. EW03), I was thinking it may see its reversal at 1.62AB level (1098.5). Then it also occured to me that this may be an Elliott Wave pattern with Wave3 (start at 1090 and ending at 1098.5).
Around 1.30pm ES reached its 1.62AB Target (1098.5) and start to reverse. Now, for EW to continue its formation, the 4th wave should end above 1094 level (B). About 2.11pm, the 4th Wave formed just above (B). See EW5 image. Now EW should form 5th wave from 1094.5 level to (1102.75-1104.25 which is 76-100% of Wave3 range. See EW06 image.
The obvious question is what next? Once Elliott Wave completes its 5-wave, it is supposed to reverse and form A, B, C waves and retest the high of 1 low of wave 4 to form Elliott Wave downwards.
Elliott Wave using ABC Bullish Pattern
June 29, 2010 5:32 PM
$SPX reversed its uptrend from 50% level (1131) and today it is trading near its neckline (1041). The second-shoulder is very narrow as price action is quick and quite volatile. A breakdown occurs when 2-Bars with lower-low close below neckline. H&S targets based on the height of H&S pattern are set at 1000, 932 and 865 level. A reversal of H&S is not considered until price trades for 2-3 bars above Neckline with Higher-High Closes. In this case, I would look for close above 1100 level on the upside for a reversal. Until then it is H&S pattern. H&S Pattern failure occurs when price trades above the high of the second shoulder. 
June 21, 2010 11:15 PM
Today $SPX.x reached its 50% retracement level (1131) and reversed to close at 1113. This may be considered as a strong reversal day as price closed at the lower-end of its daily range. $SPX.x is also unable to close above the mid Fib. Band and may be signaling potential weakness. But a single day reversal does not change the trend. It may require few more days of lower-lows and higher-lows to confirm a reversal in the last week’s uptrend. I’ll monitor 1123-1124 (Mid Fib. Band level) for another upwards push. The right shoulder formation may come a clear reversal from 1131-1150 area.
June 10, 2010 11:06 PM
After few negative bias days, $SPX may be attempting to rally to form potential H&S pattern. The last SwingHigh was on April 26th at 1219.8. The Fib. retracement levels of 50% is at 1131 and 62% is at 1152. The first hurdle to reach this level is 200-SMA at 1107. If SPX passes this level, it may reach 1130-1150 level easily. We’ll evaluate at that level to see if it is a second-shoulder. See the Volume in the second shoulder to get some hint of H&S pattern. 
June 2, 2010 11:18 PM
S&P500 index is showing signs of positive momentum as it builds a Head & Shoulder pattern. From Oct. 2009 to Feb. 2010, $SPX formed its left-shoulder between 1050 and 1150. The Head part of H&S emerged from Feb. 2010 to May 2010 (1050 to 1200). S&P retraced to its neckline 1050 during the recent May sell-off. On Wednesday (June 02), S&P rallied over 27 points to close at 1098. This rally may be signaling positive momentum and upward direction for next two to three weeks. The height of the left shoulder is around 100 points and the peak of the Left shoulder level is near 1150. This area (1150) may act as resistance for the current rally. After the right shoulder completion, S&P may rollover towards the neckline. A retest/break below the neckline (around 1050) would signal completion of Head and Shoulder pattern. If H&S pattern materializes, the lower targets for the S&P is around 900.
May 21, 2010 6:42 PM
Hail Mary pattern is one of the reliable pattern occurs on a late-day (after 3pm ET) sell-off days.
This pattern may be easily detected and traded using the ABC Bullish pattern rules.
This is also Perfect form of ABC Pattern and can be traded using SuperBars and other pivot levels.
The primary conditions to detect this pattern are:
1. Sell-off in the markets.
2. Fib. Bands show clear resistance at the mid-Fib. Bands for every attempted rally.
3. Price trades outside the lower Fib. Band to mark ‘A’.
4. Price trades above (or near) the mid Fib. Band to mark ‘B’.
5. Price makes another lower-high pivot below the mid-Fib. Band to mark ‘C’ with at least 62% retracement.
6. At least ‘B’, ‘C’ pivots must form after 3pm, if not all ‘A’, ‘B’ and ‘C’ pivots form after 3pm ET.
7. Trade using ABC Bullish pattern rules.
8. After triggering an entry, the price trades at accelerated pace, hence the Targets are reached quickly.
9. Must exit the trade by close of the day.
Here is today’s Hail Mary Setup in @ES.
After trading a high of 1088.75 by mid-day, ES started to sell-off. Every attempted rally met
with resistance at the mid-Fib. Band area. Around 3pm, price traded again outside the lower
Fib. Band to mark the ‘A’ pivot at 1068 level. This level was also supported by Value Area
Low (1068.5) and Previous Low (1067.25). About 3.30pm, price attempted to rally above
the mid-Fib. Band (1075.25) and quickly retraced back into the AB leg. At 3.40pm, the price retraced
over 62% and marked ‘C’ pivot to complete ‘ABC Bullish’ pattern. This ABC is also a perfect ABC Setup.
ABC Entry was set above 1071.5. At 3.44pm, price crossed EL with a strong Green SuperBar to signal
a potential ‘Hail Mary’ setup. Stop was set at 1069 with Target levels (62%, 100%, 162% of AB levels:
1073.75, 1076.5, 1081.).
May 13, 2010 7:38 PM
Here is my list of 10-High Beta Stocks to trade. Current patterns, trends and its analysis is provided on each chart.
March 15, 2010 7:02 PM
This morning S&P Emini futures sold-off from the high of 1152 to 1136 level. Around 11.30am, @ES traded outside the extreme Fib. bands near 1136 and reversed its down-trend inside the Fib. bands. After lunch hour, @ES traded above the mid-Fib. Bands (1140.75) to form ‘B’ pivot and retraced below the Fib. Bands to signal formation of ABC Bullish pattern. The ‘C’ retracement (59%) was below the mid Fib. Band to confirm Perfect ABC pattern. The Entry Level for this Perfect ABC was at 1139.75. Price closing above the EL with a strong Green SuperBar and above the mid-Fib. Band signaled a clear entry into Perfect ABC around 1140.25. A Stop loss was placed around 1138 to protect the trade. Strong SuperBars suggested higher targets into this ABC Pattern as 100%AB was set 1142.5 and 162%AB at 1145.25.
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